Aurora Odds: should you go outside and look up right now?

Description and use

Aurora Odds gives users a concrete answer to whether they should go outside to see the aurora, using TabPFN and solar‑wind data.

Problem

People want a practical answer to whether they should go outside to see the aurora, but existing apps only provide forecaster metrics like G5 or Kp 9.

Outcome

Aurora Odds delivers actionable, location‑specific aurora visibility predictions in real time, enabling users to decide whether to go outside immediately.

Workflow

• 1. User selects location or allows browser geolocation.
• 2. The app queries NOAA’s real‑time solar wind feed and historical data via TabPFN.
• 3. TabPFN, using an 8,000‑row stratified context, predicts a full probability distribution for the next hour’s Hp30 index.
• 4. The app calculates odds for eye visibility, camera visibility, darkness, cloud cover, and optimal viewing direction.
• 5. Results are displayed with a red night‑vision mode and an optional chime notification when conditions are favorable.

Evidence

Every aurora app I tried answers a forecaster's question (how disturbed is the magnetic field?) when the question people actually ask is a practical one: is it worth putting my shoes on and going outside, here, right now?

Source

Aurora Odds answers exactly that. Pick your place (or let the browser find it) and you get one verdict for your sky, Go outside now, Bring your phone, Not yet: it's still light out, or Stay in, the sky is quiet, backed by four numbers:

Source

The forecast comes from TabPFN, an open‑weights tabular foundation model reading the solar wind that is on its way to Earth.

Source

I gave it 8,000 half‑hours from 1998 to 2019 as context (the live page uses 2,000; more on that below).

Source

I tested on 2023 to 2026, years the model never saw, which include the solar maximum, the May 2024 superstorm and the October 2024 storm.

Source