Building a landslide rain check for a friend in Pokhara

Описание и применение

Приложение быстро оценивает риск обрушения склона в Каски, используя прогнозы осадков, и генерирует короткое сообщение на английском и непали для отправки в мессенджеры.

Задача

Determine if it is safe to travel on a road in Kaski during the monsoon based on rainfall forecasts.

Результат

The app provides a quick, locally run landslide risk estimate and a concise warning message, enabling timely travel decisions during monsoon.

Рабочий процесс

• Select district and press "Check next 3 days"
• The app runs 1,000 rainfall scenarios from 122 ensemble members (ECMWF 51, GFS 31, ICON 40) through a rainfall rule
• It calculates a risk percentage (e.g., "Risk: 68% (680 of 1,000 forecast scenarios)"
• It generates a forwardable message in English and Nepali
• It shows a fallback chain (SMS, Viber group, community volunteer, siren or flag) and a network availability toggle
• It displays a disclaimer: "This is not an official warning. Follow DHM and local authorities."

Доказательства

I built a small tool that reads rainfall forecasts and writes a short message, in English and Nepali, that can be forwarded on Viber or WhatsApp.

Источник

The app shows a risk percentage, like "Risk: 68% (680 of 1,000 forecast scenarios)"

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The rainfall data and ensemble forecasts come from Open-Meteo, which needs no key.

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The English message is written by Gemma 3 4B through Ollama on the same machine, with nothing leaving the device.

Источник

The app has only been tested on live off-season (October) forecasts and on synthetic and forced high-risk cases, because it is not monsoon season.

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