Can a model predict virality better than people? Building CloutBot with Kimi

Description and use

CloutBot, built on Kimi, automatically predicts YouTube video virality, stakes on-chain, and lets players compare human vs AI predictions.

Problem

Provide a reliable, always‑available AI opponent for the CloutCall prediction game so that new markets have an opponent and players can compare human vs AI predictions.

Outcome

CloutBot enabled continuous AI participation in CloutCall, providing structured predictions and reasoning on-chain. This added a live scoreboard for human vs AI performance and improved cold‑start experience for new markets.

Workflow

• 1. Agent pulls live YouTube metrics via YouTube Data API.
• 2. Transforms metrics into model‑friendly numbers (avg views/hour, needed views/hour, like/comment rates, gap to target).
• 3. Sends data to Kimi via Moonshot OpenAI‑compatible chat completions API (temperature 0.3, response_format json_object).
• 4. Receives structured response: side (YES/NO), confidence (50–95), predictedViews, reasoning.
• 5. Stakes points sized by confidence (50–300) and writes pick, confidence, predicted views, model name and reasoning to AgentJournal contract on Monad before deadline.
• 6. Players see on‑chain pick and reasoning, then choose side.

Evidence

For every open market CloutBot hasn't called yet, our agent pulls the video's live signals from the YouTube Data API: views, likes, comments, hours since publish.

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Turns them into numbers a model can reason about: average views per hour so far, views per hour still needed to hit the target, like rate and comment rate, and the gap to target.

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Gets back a structured call: side (YES/NO), a calibrated confidence (50–95), predictedViews at the deadline, and a short reasoning.

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Stakes points sized by confidence (50 to 300 points) and writes the pick, confidence, predicted views, model name and reasoning to our AgentJournal contract on Monad before calls close.

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Kimi turned a two-player game into a game you can always play. Every market has an opponent with a public, explained position.

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