Hacker News had 22 freelancers for every client, then it retired the thread

Описание и применение

Автор проанализировал все комментарии в ежемесячном форуме Hacker News «Freelancer? Seeking freelancer?» с января 2023 по сентябрь 2026 года, выявив, что только 4,2 % комментариев содержат реальные запросы клиентов, а 91,4 % — предложения услуг. Трекер показал, что соотношение продавцов к покупателям составляет 22 к 1, а падение активности связано с закрытием темы модератором.

Задача

Determining the true ratio of buyers to sellers in a Hacker News freelancer thread and understanding why the thread declined.

Результат

The freelancer thread had a 22:1 seller‑to‑buyer ratio; only 4.2 % of comments were genuine buyers. The thread’s decline was due to moderator retirement and cross‑posting, not seasonal drift.

Рабочий процесс

• 1. Fetch all thread comments via hn.algolia.com API (one request per thread).
• 2. Strip page chrome from comment text.
• 3. Apply word‑bounded regex markers within first 100 characters: buyer markers (SEEKING FREELANCER/CONTRACTOR/DEVELOPER/DESIGNER, WE ARE HIRING) and seller markers (SEEKING WORK/CONTRACT, AVAILABLE FOR WORK/HIRE, FOR HIRE).
• 4. Classify each comment as buyer, seller, neither, or empty; record earliest marker win.
• 5. Manually verify a sample of recent comments to catch edge cases.
• 6. Aggregate counts per month and overall.
• 7. Compare results to moderator statements and comment volume trends.
• 8. Publish findings and regression tests for future runs.

Доказательства

4,681 of those comments are someone selling their time. 213 are someone looking to pay for work.

Источник

We phased out this regular thread a few months ago because most people were cross‑posting between it and "Who Wants to Be Hired" (or, if they were seeking a freelancer, "Who Is Hiring").

Источник