I Slowed My Trading Bot Down to Four Trades a Year. It Tripled a Backtest, and It Still Failed.

说明与用途

作者将交易机器人减速至每年四笔交易，以降低手续费影响。策略在近五年内实现+200 %回报，但因交易次数、夏普比率和单笔交易利润限制未通过Gate 1测试。匹配随机控制显示结果并未显著优于随机时机。

问题

Fees on a $100 Kraken account at the lowest tier (0.80 % taker + 0.10 % slippage) ate all profits from frequent‑trading strategies.

结果

The slow‑trade strategies achieved high net returns but failed the gate because of insufficient trade count, Sharpe, and single‑trade profit limits. A matched‑null control showed the strategies were not statistically superior to random timing.

工作流

• 1. Define four slow‑trade rules (trend filter, dual momentum, vol target, trend×vol).
• 2. Freeze all parameters and gate rules before coding.
• 3. Backtest each rule on Kraken candle data from Jan 2022 to Sep 2026 with realistic fees.
• 4. Record net return, max drawdown, Sharpe, and trade count.
• 5. Apply Gate 1: require ≥100 closed trades, in‑sample Sharpe ≥1.0, walk‑forward Sharpe, and no single trade >30 % of profit.
• 6. Build a matched‑null control that randomises entry dates but preserves exposure, run 200 simulations.
• 7. Compare strategy performance to null percentiles.
• 8. Identify gate failures and analyze reasons.
• 9. Document findings and plan next steps.

证据

Fees were about 7 % of its gross winnings. Doubling the fees to 1.80 % a fill still left it at +174 %.

来源

All four failed it, and not narrowly.

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It beat 84 % of them. The rule was 95 %.

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The bug did not change any verdict, in either round.

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