Is AI costing jobs outside tech? I read 4,335 S&P 500 earnings calls

Description and use

AI is mentioned in 61.2 % of non‑tech earnings calls, but only 0.95 % link it to headcount changes. The trend rises, especially in 2025, with banks and C.H. Robinson leading the claims.

Problem

Determine how often executives outside tech report AI affecting headcount in earnings calls.

Outcome

AI is mentioned in 61.2% of non‑tech earnings calls, but only 0.95% explicitly tie AI to headcount changes. The trend shows a rise, especially in 2025, with banks and freight broker C.H. Robinson leading the claims. Most AI‑related statements focus on hiring slower growth rather than layoffs.

Workflow

• 1. Download all non‑tech S&P 500 earnings call transcripts for the period.
• 2. Search each transcript for sentences containing the keyword "AI" and any of "jobs", "headcount", or "hiring".
• 3. Manually read each candidate sentence to determine if AI was cited as a cause or factor for headcount changes.
• 4. Classify calls as: (a) explicit AI‑headcount link, (b) broader AI mention with headcount context, (c) denial of AI‑driven cuts, (d) analyst questions.
• 5. Tally counts per year and per sector.
• 6. Compile results into tables and narrative.
• 7. Publish findings with source link to full study.

Evidence

I read 4,335 earnings calls from the S&P 500 companies outside the technology sector, held from January 2024 to 23 October 2026, looking for one thing: an executive saying AI was changing the company's headcount.

Source

It happened on 41 calls, by 26 companies. That is about one call in a hundred.

Source

The jump came in the second half of 2025, when the share tripled.

Source

Of the 41 calls, 22 were about growing without adding people and 5 about not replacing people who leave. Only 14 described cut roles or lower headcount.

Source