Is AI costing jobs outside tech? I read 4,335 S&P 500 earnings calls

Описание и применение

AI упоминается в 61,2 % звонков по компаниям вне технологического сектора, но только 0,95 % связывают его с изменением численности персонала. Тренд растёт, особенно в 2025 году, при этом банки и C.H. Robinson лидируют в заявлениях.

Задача

Determine how often executives outside tech report AI affecting headcount in earnings calls.

Результат

AI is mentioned in 61.2% of non‑tech earnings calls, but only 0.95% explicitly tie AI to headcount changes. The trend shows a rise, especially in 2025, with banks and freight broker C.H. Robinson leading the claims. Most AI‑related statements focus on hiring slower growth rather than layoffs.

Рабочий процесс

• 1. Download all non‑tech S&P 500 earnings call transcripts for the period.
• 2. Search each transcript for sentences containing the keyword "AI" and any of "jobs", "headcount", or "hiring".
• 3. Manually read each candidate sentence to determine if AI was cited as a cause or factor for headcount changes.
• 4. Classify calls as: (a) explicit AI‑headcount link, (b) broader AI mention with headcount context, (c) denial of AI‑driven cuts, (d) analyst questions.
• 5. Tally counts per year and per sector.
• 6. Compile results into tables and narrative.
• 7. Publish findings with source link to full study.

Доказательства

I read 4,335 earnings calls from the S&P 500 companies outside the technology sector, held from January 2024 to 23 October 2026, looking for one thing: an executive saying AI was changing the company's headcount.

Источник

It happened on 41 calls, by 26 companies. That is about one call in a hundred.

Источник

The jump came in the second half of 2025, when the share tripled.

Источник

Of the 41 calls, 22 were about growing without adding people and 5 about not replacing people who leave. Only 14 described cut roles or lower headcount.

Источник