My Robot Keeps Its Receipts

说明与用途

该系统使用哈希链、数字签名和公共随机数生成器drand记录预测，并通过Brier分数对预测进行评分，鼓励诚实的不确定性。

问题

How to record and evaluate forecaster predictions while ensuring the forecaster knows when it doesn’t know and preventing manipulation of the record or timing.

结果

The ledger records forecaster predictions in a tamper‑proof way, enforces a public deadline, escalates invalid submissions, and grades honest uncertainty, providing a fair evaluation of forecasters over many calls.

工作流

• 1. Call – submit a prediction record with symbol, kind, close_date, and probability. 2. Commit – seal the record’s tip before the market opens on the close date, using drand’s latest round to enforce the deadline. 3. Resolve – after the close, a reader fetches the closing price and writes it as a row. 4. Grade – code proposes the outcome, the owner seals it, and every call is scored with a Brier score, including escalations for invalid or late submissions.

证据

One record. Every result is a row on a hash chain. Edit a row and the chain breaks where you edited it.

来源

A clock nobody controls. drand publishes public randomness on a fixed schedule.

来源

Every call is scored with a Brier score: the square of the gap between the probability you gave and what happened.

来源