No U.S. coal unit has retired in 2026 so far. Here is what happened to the 6.4 GW that was planned

Description and use

By August 2026, no U.S. coal generator had retired, despite a 6.4 GW retirement plan. Most planned retirements were moved, delayed, or left without a date.

Problem

Verify whether the 6.4 GW of U.S. coal capacity scheduled to retire in 2026 actually retired.

Outcome

Through August 2026, no U.S. coal generator retired; 6.4 GW plan remains largely unmet. 44% of planned units moved out of 2026, 40% held open by DOE, 5% delayed by owners, and 10% unchanged.

Workflow

• 1. Download EIA monthly generator inventory (Form EIA‑860M) up to August 2026.
• 2. Inspect each row for 2026 retirement dates.
• 3. Cross‑check with EIA Electric Power Monthly retired‑units table for July 2026.
• 4. Categorize generators: moved out of 2026, held open by DOE, owner‑requested delay, no deferral.
• 5. Compare row‑level plans with EIA published coal plans (13% match).
• 6. Analyze reasons for over‑ or under‑retirement in previous years.
• 7. Document predictions and their accuracy.
• 8. Publish code, data, and results on GitHub.

Evidence

Through August, no U.S. coal generator has retired in 2026.

Source

Moved out of 2026 or left with no date: 2,770 MW (44%).

Source

Still dated 2026 but held open by DOE emergency orders: 2,570 MW (40%).

Source

Code, data and every source: https://github.com/munimtechnologies/eia860m-slip/blob/main/docs/coal-rows.md

Source