One unit over 200 can cost a Pakistani home Rs 32,000. By day 14 my forecaster had warned 31 of the 38 homes that crossed

Description and use

Slabwatch alerts Pakistani households about exceeding the 200 kWh tariff cliff, preventing ~Rs 32,000 extra charges by forecasting usage and probability.

Problem

Pakistani households risk losing protected tariff status and incurring ~Rs 32,000 extra if they exceed 200 kWh in a billing month, but billing cycles and meter readings are often inaccurate or delayed.

Outcome

In 65 real billing cycles, Slabwatch issued 32 alerts on day 14, 30 of which were correct, with only 2 false alarms, outperforming straight‑line arithmetic (36 alerts, 29 correct, 7 false).

Workflow

• 1. Read meter once during billing month. 2. Input reading date and meter reading into Slabwatch. 3. Slabwatch calculates units so far, days elapsed, and projects end‑of‑cycle units using a calibrated GBM+TabPFN blend. 4. It outputs a daily budget and a probability of exceeding 200 kWh. 5. If probability is high, user receives an alert with budget; otherwise remains quiet.

Evidence

A Pakistani household that stays at or under 200 units a month pays the protected rate. Go over once and the next six bills are priced as unprotected: about Rs 32,000 extra for a typical 2 kW home on this year's tariff.

Source

On day 14 they disagreed about which side of 200 a cycle would end on 10 times. The model was right 8 times. Arithmetic was right 2 times.

Source

Fewer false alarms, and slightly more real ones. A tool that cries wolf gets ignored by the second month, so this is what decides whether the message gets read.

Source