One unit over 200 can cost a Pakistani home Rs 32,000. By day 14 my forecaster had warned 31 of the 38 homes that crossed

说明与用途

Slabwatch 通过预测和概率提醒巴基斯坦家庭避免超过 200 kWh 的电费阈值，防止额外约 32,000 盎司的费用。

问题

Pakistani households risk losing protected tariff status and incurring ~Rs 32,000 extra if they exceed 200 kWh in a billing month, but billing cycles and meter readings are often inaccurate or delayed.

结果

In 65 real billing cycles, Slabwatch issued 32 alerts on day 14, 30 of which were correct, with only 2 false alarms, outperforming straight‑line arithmetic (36 alerts, 29 correct, 7 false).

工作流

• 1. Read meter once during billing month. 2. Input reading date and meter reading into Slabwatch. 3. Slabwatch calculates units so far, days elapsed, and projects end‑of‑cycle units using a calibrated GBM+TabPFN blend. 4. It outputs a daily budget and a probability of exceeding 200 kWh. 5. If probability is high, user receives an alert with budget; otherwise remains quiet.

证据

A Pakistani household that stays at or under 200 units a month pays the protected rate. Go over once and the next six bills are priced as unprotected: about Rs 32,000 extra for a typical 2 kW home on this year's tariff.

来源

On day 14 they disagreed about which side of 200 a cycle would end on 10 times. The model was right 8 times. Arithmetic was right 2 times.

来源

Fewer false alarms, and slightly more real ones. A tool that cries wolf gets ignored by the second month, so this is what decides whether the message gets read.

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