Solar, wind, batteries and gas each lost about a quarter of their 2026 plan by August

Description and use

Developers planned 86 GW of new capacity for 2026, but by August each technology—solar, wind, batteries, and natural gas—was about a quarter behind its planned capacity.

Problem

Developers’ 2026 capacity plans for solar, wind, batteries, and natural gas were overestimated, with each technology falling short by roughly a quarter of its projected 2026 capacity by August.

Outcome

All four technologies lost about a quarter of their 2026 capacity plans by August, with natural gas slipping most and almost none of its projects dropping out. Combustion turbines were further along than combined‑cycle units.

Workflow

• 1. Downloaded EIA December 2025 monthly inventory via Catalyst Cooperative’s PUDL.
• 2. Filtered generators that were online in 2026 or planned for a 2026 month.
• 3. Updated the inventory to the August 2026 report.
• 4. Calculated percentage of planned capacity lost for each technology.
• 5. Analyzed gas project shifts to 2027 or later and identified projects that slipped or were removed.
• 6. Compared combustion turbine and combined‑cycle online status.
• 7. Cross‑checked raw records of two plants (Trumbull Energy Center and Orange County Advanced Power Station) with EIA data.
• 8. Published findings and predictions before running the job.

Evidence

Each technology lost about a quarter of its plan.

Gas slipped more than solar or batteries, and almost none of it dropped out.

Combustion turbines are further along than combined cycle by August (48.4% online against 27.4%).

The raw records of the two plants EIA named match its article.