The retirement dates EIA lists for the coal plants DOE holds open are the emergency-order expiry dates

Description and use

Comparison of EIA‑860M data and DOE 90‑day order expiries shows that planned retirement months for coal units align with order expiry dates in 80 % of cases and with the month or next in 85 %. No units were reported retired while an order was active.

Problem

Determine whether the planned retirement month reported in EIA‑860M for coal units under DOE 90‑day emergency orders reflects the owner’s retirement plan or merely the order’s expiry date.

Outcome

The planned retirement month in EIA‑860M for units under DOE 90‑day emergency orders aligns with the order’s expiry date in 80 % of cases and with the month or the next in 85 %. No units were reported retired while an order was active, and two units had no planned retirement date while under orders.

Workflow

• 1. Download EIA‑860M monthly inventory data for May 2025–August 2026.
• 2. Retrieve DOE 90‑day emergency order expiry dates for the eight coal plants.
• 3. Align unit‑month records from both sources by plant and unit identifiers.
• 4. Compare the planned retirement month in EIA‑860M to the order expiry month.
• 5. Record matches, mismatches, and units with missing dates.
• 6. Summarize findings and assess predictions about date changes.
• 7. Publish results and provide repository links for data and code.

Evidence

101 of 126 unit‑months (80%) were dated to the exact month the order in force expires

Source

No covered generator at any of the eight plants was reported retired while an order was in force.

Source