Why I stopped trading and started tendering with AI

说明与用途

作者放弃算法交易，转向使用 PyTorch 构建的 AI 模型进行数字广告的自动投标，预测展示价值并优化出价。

问题

Algorithmic trading is a zero‑sum game where profitable patterns are quickly arbitraged away, leading to diminishing edge and high effort‑to‑reward ratio.

结果

The AI‑driven tendering system replaces unpredictable trading with a value‑creating bidding strategy, yielding consistent profits and reducing the need for constant optimization.

工作流

• 1. Collect bid request data from a DSP API (user demographics, device type, ad size, time, historical CTR/CVR).
• 2. Encode categorical features with an embedding layer.
• 3. Feed embeddings through a feedforward neural network (two hidden layers, ReLU activations).
• 4. Train the model with MSE loss on historical bid data, retraining daily for continual learning.
• 5. Apply exploration‑exploitation by adding a small random factor to predicted bids.
• 6. In the bidding engine, cap the predicted bid at the DSP’s max_bid and submit via the DSP API.

证据

I sunk countless hours (and a not‑insignificant amount of capital) into trying to predict the market.

来源

The market, it turns out, is remarkably good at not being predictable.

来源

I built an AI that can accurately predict the value of an impression to an advertiser and bid accordingly, without necessarily knowing the future price of the impression.

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